Weekly Fan Mood Report

San Jose Earthquakes Plunge, St. Louis City Stays Strong

Jul 20, 2026 - Jul 26, 2026

By Sam Hannan

San Jose Earthquakes Plunge, St. Louis City Stays Strong

This week presented a deceptive calm across the global football fan landscape, with a global average delta of -0.99 masking significant individual club volatility. While St. Louis City fans enjoyed a modest +3 surge, the San Jose Earthquakes fanbase experienced a dramatic -26 drop, highlighting the underlying `stability_illusion` despite `top-end control` elsewhere. This dynamic points to `contained volatility` rather than widespread tranquility, where `stable leadership` at the top belies deeper unrest.

Fan Sentiment Index

The table showed mixed directional signals with no dominant trend this week. The global average score stands at 54.69, with a global average delta of -0.99. The global volatility index registered a low 7.8, indicating overall `contained volatility` but not an absence of sharp movements.

Narrative Divergence

Significant gaps between fan sentiment and underlying narrative signals emerged for several clubs. Sunderland registered a narrative proxy divergence of -19.60, suggesting a substantial disconnect. FC Cincinnati followed with a -15.60 divergence, while Necaxa also showed a notable -15.50 proxy divergence.

Biggest Mood Swings

The most dramatic shifts in fan sentiment were pronounced. San Jose Earthquakes experienced an alarming -26 delta this week, accompanied by a 25-point internal swing, indicating extreme emotional flux. Sunderland also saw a sharp -20 drop with a 20-point internal swing. Conversely, Tigre fans surged with a +19 delta and a 19-point internal swing.

Top 5 Happiest Fanbases

Fanbases at the top demonstrate a mix of sustained high sentiment and recent surges. St. Louis City closes the week at 74 with a solid +3 change, maintaining a strong position. HNK Hajduk Split shows robust growth, reaching 73 with an impressive +8 change. Los Angeles FC also sits at 73, having gained +4, reflecting consistent `top-end resilience`. Orlando City SC made a significant leap to 72 with a +14 change, while Nashville SC holds at 72 despite a minor -2 dip.

Bottom 5 Fanbases

Pressure points are evident among the lowest-ranked fanbases, indicating potential for further decline or stagnation. Seattle Sounders fans closed at 35 with a -6 change, signaling ongoing dissatisfaction. San Jose Earthquakes plunged to 38 with a severe -26 drop, marking them as the week's most distressed fanbase. Real Salt Lake also registered a significant fall to 39 with a -17 change. Sporting Kansas City remains at 39 with a -2 change, while New York Red Bulls sits at 40 after an -11 decline.

Calmest Fanbase

Atletico Tucuman posted the tightest range (0), anchoring the week.

Signature Insight

Surface calm masked club-level fragmentation: global delta was -0.99, yet San Jose Earthquakes still moved -26.

Verdict

Verdict: the average looked calm while club-level emotion fractured. The `elite_stability_week` was more about `top-end control` preventing a global collapse than widespread tranquility.

Highlight Team of the Week

San Jose Earthquakes is the highlight team this week due to producing the strongest emotional reaction. Their fanbase experienced a dramatic -26 delta with a 25-point internal swing, making them the most volatile. While specific fixture details are not available, the data indicates that on-pitch baseline performance actually outperformed fan reaction, signaling a significant confidence lag among supporters despite results.

League Comparison

The HNL leads with an average score of 59.75 and a positive average weekly delta of +3.75, indicating a buoyant mood. In contrast, Major League Soccer shows an average score of 54.52 but a notable average weekly delta of -3.07, suggesting a broader dip in sentiment across the league. The Süper Lig and Premier League maintain mid-50s average scores but registered negative deltas of -0.64 and -1.65 respectively, demonstrating slight downward pressure.

Closing View

Top-end control persisted through St. Louis City (74, +3). Stability is real, but still concentrated at the top. Calmest Fanbase: Atletico Tucuman posted the tightest range (0), anchoring the week. The week's data confirms that while the surface appears orderly, club-level sentiment is far from uniformly stable.

Sentiment Leaders and Laggards

Weekly close sentiment score distribution.

Biggest Mood Swings

The largest changes in fan mood since last week.

League Comparison

Sentiment scores and weekly changes are shown on separate scales for readability.

LeagueAverage sentimentAverage change
HNLHNL59.8+3.75
Süper LigSüper Lig57.3-0.64
Premier LeaguePremier League56.9-1.65
Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina56.7-1
Serie ASerie A56.1-2.29
Liga MXLiga MX55.9-2
Serie ASerie A55.5-0.35
Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer54.5-3.07

Highlight Team

San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes produced the week's strongest emotional reaction (-26) with a 25-point internal swing. On-pitch baseline outperformed fan reaction, signaling a confidence lag.

Top 5 Happiest Fanbases

TeamScoreWeekly changeCommentary
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City74+3Week close 74 with +3 change.
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split73+8Week close 73 with +8 change.
Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC73+4Week close 73 with +4 change.
Orlando City SCOrlando City SC72+14Week close 72 with +14 change.
Nashville SCNashville SC72-2Week close 72 with -2 change.

Bottom 5 Fanbases

TeamScoreWeekly changeCommentary
Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders35-6Week close 35 with -6 change.
San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes38-26Week close 38 with -26 change.
Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake39-17Week close 39 with -17 change.
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City39-2Week close 39 with -2 change.
New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls40-11Week close 40 with -11 change.

Biggest Mood Swings

TeamWeekly changeCommentary
San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes-26Moved -26 this week with 25 point internal swing.
SunderlandSunderland-20Moved -20 this week with 20 point internal swing.
TigreTigre+19Moved +19 this week with 19 point internal swing.

Narrative vs Results

TeamMood vs resultsCommentary
SunderlandSunderland-19.6Narrative proxy divergence measured at -19.60.
FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati-15.6Narrative proxy divergence measured at -15.60.
NecaxaNecaxa-15.5Narrative proxy divergence measured at -15.50.