Weekly Fan Mood Report
San Jose Earthquakes Plunge, St. Louis City Stays Strong
Jul 20, 2026 - Jul 26, 2026
By Sam Hannan
San Jose Earthquakes Plunge, St. Louis City Stays Strong
This week presented a deceptive calm across the global football fan landscape, with a global average delta of -0.99 masking significant individual club volatility. While St. Louis City fans enjoyed a modest +3 surge, the San Jose Earthquakes fanbase experienced a dramatic -26 drop, highlighting the underlying `stability_illusion` despite `top-end control` elsewhere. This dynamic points to `contained volatility` rather than widespread tranquility, where `stable leadership` at the top belies deeper unrest.
Fan Sentiment Index
The table showed mixed directional signals with no dominant trend this week. The global average score stands at 54.69, with a global average delta of -0.99. The global volatility index registered a low 7.8, indicating overall `contained volatility` but not an absence of sharp movements.
Narrative Divergence
Significant gaps between fan sentiment and underlying narrative signals emerged for several clubs. Sunderland registered a narrative proxy divergence of -19.60, suggesting a substantial disconnect. FC Cincinnati followed with a -15.60 divergence, while Necaxa also showed a notable -15.50 proxy divergence.
Biggest Mood Swings
The most dramatic shifts in fan sentiment were pronounced. San Jose Earthquakes experienced an alarming -26 delta this week, accompanied by a 25-point internal swing, indicating extreme emotional flux. Sunderland also saw a sharp -20 drop with a 20-point internal swing. Conversely, Tigre fans surged with a +19 delta and a 19-point internal swing.
Top 5 Happiest Fanbases
Fanbases at the top demonstrate a mix of sustained high sentiment and recent surges. St. Louis City closes the week at 74 with a solid +3 change, maintaining a strong position. HNK Hajduk Split shows robust growth, reaching 73 with an impressive +8 change. Los Angeles FC also sits at 73, having gained +4, reflecting consistent `top-end resilience`. Orlando City SC made a significant leap to 72 with a +14 change, while Nashville SC holds at 72 despite a minor -2 dip.
Bottom 5 Fanbases
Pressure points are evident among the lowest-ranked fanbases, indicating potential for further decline or stagnation. Seattle Sounders fans closed at 35 with a -6 change, signaling ongoing dissatisfaction. San Jose Earthquakes plunged to 38 with a severe -26 drop, marking them as the week's most distressed fanbase. Real Salt Lake also registered a significant fall to 39 with a -17 change. Sporting Kansas City remains at 39 with a -2 change, while New York Red Bulls sits at 40 after an -11 decline.
Calmest Fanbase
Atletico Tucuman posted the tightest range (0), anchoring the week.
Signature Insight
Surface calm masked club-level fragmentation: global delta was -0.99, yet San Jose Earthquakes still moved -26.
Verdict
Verdict: the average looked calm while club-level emotion fractured. The `elite_stability_week` was more about `top-end control` preventing a global collapse than widespread tranquility.
Highlight Team of the Week
San Jose Earthquakes is the highlight team this week due to producing the strongest emotional reaction. Their fanbase experienced a dramatic -26 delta with a 25-point internal swing, making them the most volatile. While specific fixture details are not available, the data indicates that on-pitch baseline performance actually outperformed fan reaction, signaling a significant confidence lag among supporters despite results.
League Comparison
The HNL leads with an average score of 59.75 and a positive average weekly delta of +3.75, indicating a buoyant mood. In contrast, Major League Soccer shows an average score of 54.52 but a notable average weekly delta of -3.07, suggesting a broader dip in sentiment across the league. The Süper Lig and Premier League maintain mid-50s average scores but registered negative deltas of -0.64 and -1.65 respectively, demonstrating slight downward pressure.
Closing View
Top-end control persisted through St. Louis City (74, +3). Stability is real, but still concentrated at the top. Calmest Fanbase: Atletico Tucuman posted the tightest range (0), anchoring the week. The week's data confirms that while the surface appears orderly, club-level sentiment is far from uniformly stable.
Sentiment Leaders and Laggards
Weekly close sentiment score distribution.
Biggest Mood Swings
The largest changes in fan mood since last week.
League Comparison
Sentiment scores and weekly changes are shown on separate scales for readability.
| League | Average sentiment | Average change |
|---|---|---|
HNL | 59.8 | +3.75 |
Süper Lig | 57.3 | -0.64 |
Premier League | 56.9 | -1.65 |
Liga Profesional Argentina | 56.7 | -1 |
Serie A | 56.1 | -2.29 |
Liga MX | 55.9 | -2 |
Serie A | 55.5 | -0.35 |
Major League Soccer | 54.5 | -3.07 |
Highlight Team
San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes produced the week's strongest emotional reaction (-26) with a 25-point internal swing. On-pitch baseline outperformed fan reaction, signaling a confidence lag.
Top 5 Happiest Fanbases
| Team | Score | Weekly change | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis City | 74 | +3 | Week close 74 with +3 change. |
HNK Hajduk Split | 73 | +8 | Week close 73 with +8 change. |
Los Angeles FC | 73 | +4 | Week close 73 with +4 change. |
Orlando City SC | 72 | +14 | Week close 72 with +14 change. |
Nashville SC | 72 | -2 | Week close 72 with -2 change. |
Bottom 5 Fanbases
| Team | Score | Weekly change | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Sounders | 35 | -6 | Week close 35 with -6 change. |
San Jose Earthquakes | 38 | -26 | Week close 38 with -26 change. |
Real Salt Lake | 39 | -17 | Week close 39 with -17 change. |
Sporting Kansas City | 39 | -2 | Week close 39 with -2 change. |
New York Red Bulls | 40 | -11 | Week close 40 with -11 change. |
Biggest Mood Swings
| Team | Weekly change | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
San Jose Earthquakes | -26 | Moved -26 this week with 25 point internal swing. |
Sunderland | -20 | Moved -20 this week with 20 point internal swing. |
Tigre | +19 | Moved +19 this week with 19 point internal swing. |
Narrative vs Results
| Team | Mood vs results | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
Sunderland | -19.6 | Narrative proxy divergence measured at -19.60. |
FC Cincinnati | -15.6 | Narrative proxy divergence measured at -15.60. |
Necaxa | -15.5 | Narrative proxy divergence measured at -15.50. |




















